Return to the Mainpage

Online Diary

Infantry - the Soldier Trade

Writer - the Kiwi Skribbler

Rants - Tarrackin Speaks his Mind

NZDF - Defence Issues

New Zealand Links

Email juni0r

What Will Be - a book review of a possible future

Written by Michael Dertouzos, Director, MIT Laboratory for Computer Science

Published 1997 by HarperCollins Publishers, Inc

ISBN 0-7499-1759-8

Dertouzos writes in a friendly manner as if he is speaking to you rather than conveying information in a text. Solid educational opinion comes through as "food for thought" rather than subject for argument. This makes reading easy.

We have yet to become a true information infrastructure, which is vital for a true Information Marketplace. My computer can not tell me which car has the greatest headroom, because the different manufacturers keep their data in different forms and at different sites. It is a requirement that all the contributing corporations work together for this to come to pass, rather than what exists at present, universal competition. Universal standardisation is required.

Several places in the book demonstrate it is the competition and lack of combined effort of companies and corporations that slows downs progress such as in the concept of body nets. A place where I can draw on my own knowledge of this is a military example where the 21st Century Land Warrior project attempts to conquer this. All the different elements such as clothing, computer equipment, electronics, ballistic protection, armament, and so on are indeed made by different firms but from the outset are designed with other elements in mind. Previously other firms are not considered and the soldier on the ground suffers from a lack of "true" compatibility of the products he uses on the battlefield.

As you travel through the book the author provides you with some examples of things discussed by telling "micro-stories", putting the reader in the position of the user of a said technology or social impact.

Businesses are time and time again not learning from history and the mistakes of others. They attempt to take on areas of technology of which they have no experience, a great handicap to the progress of the Information Marketplace. The Information Marketplace should allow any individual or group without the need of a controlling entity to work through. It is much like "getting rid of the middle-man or middle-machine". It has yet to do this. One major obstacle is the area of technological compatibility that comes inherently from competition that in turn comes from the nature of man.

Even so there are the applications present even now that can allow for universal compatibility. The author refers to such tools of the future that allow for this compatibility as "middleware modules". These tools will become more and more specialist for different roles in society; medical, trade, financial, military, design and so on. Usage of these modules will allow for true computer connectivity. Using such tools is termed "automatization". The only real example at present is e-mail. I will take a quote from the book to explain more vividly,

"To get the full picture, imagine a table with several rows and columns. The rows are different sectors of the economy, like agriculture, manufacturing, retail trade…"

"The columns are various types of workgroup and telework that can be conducted, like conferences, workshops, small meetings, review sessions, and collaborative map sessions."

It is very much a combination any two elements.

Security is also preformed via middleware. One proposed method is that of the sender and receiver having codes and the age-old method of using a super high prime number, which only a computer can possibly generate and / or decipher.

There is an increase in the Information Marketplace, without question, as we lay down more and more fibre-optic cable but there are the cultural differences as we reach into newer and more diverse countries outside the traditional western countries. These cultures can create barriers. Also the virtual, on-line terrorism as more and more peoples are slaved to the Information Revolution.

Dertouzos explains rather early on in his book that it is essential to know the early history of the Information Revolution so as to know where it has all come from and to understand the mistakes of the past so as you don’t make them again. Awareness is vital to a safe future.

The author takes various elements of society and examines them from both the humanist and techno-junkie points of view to ensure an even keel is kept on opinion. It is seen that it is vital to understand both sides if we are to approach the future with any clarity. Mentioned are the various forms of data-transmission and their pros and cons – cable (tv), phone, satellite, and micro-cell. The latter consists of small relays, on each street corner relaying information over a few hundred metres rather than several thousand. This makes problems easier to isolate and communication to be tighter.

Where technology works best in replicating humans is where their domain is limited and thus their possible outcomes are limited. This provides less possibility for error. This in other words means they require a limited scope of operation to be effective (eg to be specialist). The author remarks that it is our lack of understanding in how our own human-being operates that prevents us duplicating effectively, our own selves in computers.

All the fancy devices need to enhance and assist communication and interaction between man and machine. If they do not they hinder us regardless of how advanced they are. It is all about being as humanly natural as possible to be effective and productive. Demonstrations of what was once a specialist case in the 60’s and 70’s which is now common place shows just how far we have come. Such things as on-line chat that the author was using on a time-share computer system and now the same thing has reached into the homes of millions and millions of people. This showed also that from a very early time in the history of computers people wanted very much to share information interactivity.

The Information Marketplace will renew that community bond and again enhance the humanistic side of our natures.

"The personal computer weakened the community bond that had formed in the time-shared era. But it was an essential step to break the notion that a centralized machine was needed to coordinate and control people at distributed terminals. The information Marketplace is the next step. It will rebuild the notion of community, this time among millions of people at powerful machines. And the historians will say that the world moved from computer autocracy to computer democracy."

Education is considered in this work and with regards Information Technology it is a relatively new innovation. Particularly in the education of our youth it is only become part of their learning in recent years. The Internet has allowed children of many nations to come together and experience each other’s cultures and so forth. The author warns that just because something is new does not necessarily make it educationally effective. I would suggest that new innovations and technologies, until they have settled down and are in more common usage (as it is now with the Internet) might be detrimental to education for just that reason.

Another interesting point is that throughout history we have spent much time teaching the skills of academia yet little time on teaching social and human relationship skills. Is technology just going to make this worse? Or could we advance Artificial Intelligence and simulators so far as to effectively teach these things?

Government and the issue of privacy, business and industrial performance, social issues such as the impact on employment and the lust for knowledge and so many more questions and possible answers are covered. All I can suggest is to read this impressive piece of literature.

This review has become somewhat lengthy more due to the enthusiasm of the reviewer to convey details of the book to the reader than anything else.

I would, without hesitation recommend this book to anyone regardless of an interest in Information Technology. It takes an unbiased and educated view of several possible futures, and projects these possibilities on a theoretical time-line. Regardless of wether you agree or disagree with points made in this book it presents issues that can not be ignored. For myself it has left a desire to further investigate the issues presented, and given the time, study my own conclusions and present my own ideas, of which could only be based on solidly founded research.

As for me I am waiting for the day when I turn to lift my coffee mug and forever find it full.

Leon "Junior" Harrison

 

Mainpage

Updates

FAQ

Disclaimer

 

Online Diary

Rants

Writing

 

New Zealand Links

General Links

 

Associates

Wee Tim

 

iBook Laptop

Psiom 5mx Palmtop

 

SF Short Story

Poetry

 

Defence I

Defence II

Defence III

Defence IV

NZDF Letter

Defemce Solutions

Defence Debate

Swiss Model of Neutrality

 

Military Technology Essay

Infantry - the Soldier Trade

Military Firearms

 

NZ Special Air Service

US Army Rangers

UK Parachute Regiment

GBR Gebirgsjager

 

Warhammer 40K

Skribblerz - Online Writers' Group

BBC World News

Kiwi Blog

O.R.C. Member

Stalker - Shadow of Chernobyl

 

 

 

Copyright © Leon T. Harrison 1996-2005. All Rights Reserved.

Tarrackin's Home Scroll
http://juni0r.orcon.net.nz

Disclaimer
Hosted by Orcon
Apple Computers
FAQ